Jess Ayers, CEO, and Greg De Temmerman, Chief Science Officer and Deputy CEO

A lot can happen in four years. When Quadrature Climate Foundation (QCF) was established in 2019, it had been four years since the Paris Agreement, where the world’s nations united around the ambition of achieving ‘net zero’ emissions to keep global temperatures below 1.5°C. By 2019, progress was being made on multiple fronts, from bold corporate emissions-reduction targets to investors shifting from coal to clean energy, and a rising movement of youth activists. Despite 2015-2019 being the warmest five-year period on record, in 2019, it was all to play for, and the goals of the Paris Agreement remained within reach.

Fast forward another four years to 2023. The first global stocktake of the Paris goals had just been completed, revealing the world was significantly off track. We had already used a large part of the world’s carbon budget to keep temperatures below 1.5°C. The IPCC’s sixth assessment report indicated that we will likely overshoot 1.5°C in the 2030s, and that limiting this overshoot would require a massive scale-up in carbon removals and global adaptation to the inevitable climate impacts. 2023 was the warmest year on record, showcasing what to expect in a ‘new climate reality’, with escalating climate impacts such as unprecedented heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires, and tropical cyclones upending life for millions and inflicting billions of dollars in economic losses.

The ‘new climate reality’: challenges and opportunities

It wasn’t all bad news. The climate solutions landscape had evolved quickly, with exponential growth in renewables – solar and wind were proving the fastest-growing electricity sources in history. Progress in battery technologies and declining costs had put the electricity system at a global tipping point. Climate laws, like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and the EU’s Repower plan, were showing strong (if still insufficient) commitments, indicating that the ‘energy transition’ away from fossil fuels was finally starting. There was excitement that the demand for fossil fuels would peak before 2030 and then decline, marking a significant shift after decades of debates about peak supply.

Climate philanthropy had also shifted. Although there had been a slowdown in its growth, climate philanthropy had still expanded, with significant new funders entering the decarbonisation space at scales that did not exist in 2019. We also witnessed an exciting partnerships among philanthropies, the private sector, and governments.

This was the context for QCF’s first strategic review. As of early 2023, we had committed more than US$500 million to the field—a milestone opportunity to reflect on our approach. We wanted to know how our funding ‘added up’ to drive the urgent systems change required. We needed to evaluate where our contributions were having the most impact, considering the new and evolving philanthropic and climate landscape. And we wanted to ensure our portfolio responded to the ‘new climate reality’—a world where we will breach the 1.5°C target and will need to deal with the consequences and complexities of this overshoot.

We started with ‘why’…

At QCF, we care about climate because it drives human suffering. Climate change is a threat multiplier—hitting the poorest hardest, while they are the least responsible for the emissions driving it. People in low-income countries are 10 times more likely to be affected by a climate disaster and four times more likely to be displaced by extreme weather than those in wealthier nations. On our current trajectory, the ‘new climate reality’ could force more than 200 million people to migrate within their own countries by 2050 and push up to 130 million more into poverty.

Our new North Star is clear: building a climate-resilient future for the world’s most vulnerable.

Climate resilience describes the capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to anticipate, accommodate, respond to, and recover from climate impacts. Our focus is on supporting those who are most vulnerable—those at the intersection of severe climate exposure and poverty that means they are least able to cope with those impacts. Global datasets indicate that roughly 4.5 billion people are exposed to extreme weather events annually, with 2.3 billion living on less than US$6.85 per day. These are the people we work for.

We are committed to aligning our investments with this vision and to taking a proactive role in driving both mitigation and adaptation efforts to meet the challenges of this ‘new climate reality’.

Our pillars: Reduce, Remove, Respond

Our new North Star has led to an expansion of QCF’s focus areas, moving from a portfolio focused on rapid decarbonisation to one that recognises decarbonisation is necessary but insufficient to achieve climate resilience in the face of a very likely climate overshoot. Achieving climate resilience requires both stabilising the climate through the reduction and removal of emissions and supporting everyone—especially the most vulnerable—in responding to current and future climate impacts that are now inevitable. This gave rise to QCF’s three key pillars: ‘Reduce, Remove, and Respond’. (We cannot take credit for the ‘R’s’ framing, versions of which have been articulated by many others to whom we are grateful for their inspiration).

1. Reduce: Rapid emissions reduction remains fundamental to stabilising the climate. Decarbonisation must continue to be a priority, as reducing emissions is easier and cheaper than removing carbon from the atmosphere. Our first priority is to maintain a strong focus on cutting emissions as quickly as possible.
2. Remove: Even with strong efforts to reduce emissions, most scenarios suggest we will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold, requiring a large-scale expansion of carbon removal efforts. Currently, the technology and systems for durable carbon removal do not exist at the scale needed. We are therefore committed to expanding our portfolio to support the necessary scaling of carbon removal solutions alongside emissions reductions.
3. Respond: Despite our best mitigation efforts, some climate impacts are already unavoidable and irreversible. Our third pillar focuses on supporting the world’s most vulnerable communities to build resilience against these escalating impacts. This includes investing significantly in climate adaptation—systemic interventions that enhance resilience to extreme heat, droughts, floods, and storms. We are also supporting research and governance initiatives to ensure that future decisions around climate interventions are robust, inclusive, and informed by the best scientific data. And we are exploring how we can support the foundations of truly “climate resilient societies” - social cohesion, a thriving civil society, and engaged democratic participation.

A science-led approach to unlocking climate solutions

When it comes to climate solutions, many are already available: in 2022, the IPCC confirmed that halving emissions by 2030 is possible. However, innovation is still needed for the longer term. The IEA estimates that 37% of the emissions reductions needed by 2050 will come from technologies currently in the demonstration or prototype phase, down from 50% in 2021—indicating that progress is being made, but also that more is required, especially in ‘hard-to-abate’ sectors.

So QCF supports the innovation ecosystem from early-stage research to project deployment. We believe that philanthropic capital can play a unique role alongside traditional investments, helping to catalyse and scale up new solutions.

However, there are also challenges with scaling existing solutions, as they often face numerous bottlenecks—technical, financial, political, and social. So, we invest in understanding the systemic bottlenecks—such as those identified in our carbon dioxide removal and transition minerals programme strategies—and working with the ecosystem to address them.

We do this by being ‘science-led’. To us, this goes beyond simply ‘following the science’. It means using diverse evidence to challenge assumptions, integrating different types of knowledge, and identifying solutions that meet the needs of all stakeholders. We know we don’t have all the answers, so we focus on increasing our engagement with the scientific community in several ways:

• Building a research network: We are growing a network of postdoctoral fellows at universities globally, who work on solutions to the climate challenge and engage in peer-reviewing and stress-testing our strategies.
• Mission-oriented research: We invest in targeted research that addresses specific bottlenecks and complex challenges, linking academic insights to practical applications.
• Creating spaces for debate: We support spaces where diverse thinkers and practitioners can collaborate to identify new pathways and resolve intractable trade-offs.

Where next?

We are now rolling out our strategy, adapting as we go. Over the coming year, you will see our portfolio rebalancing from one heavily focused on emissions reductions to a more even distribution across our three pillars—Reduce, Remove, and Respond. This does not diminish the importance of rapid and sustained emissions reductions, which remain the first and most critical step to stabilising the climate. Rather, it reflects our recognition that, in today's climate funding landscape, QCF’s funding is more additional in the Remove and Respond pillars. This focus may shift over time as the landscape evolves.

We know we cannot achieve this alone. Our success depends on collaboration with partners who share our vision of building a climate-resilient future for all.